Could the Eastern Mediterranean play a decisive role in shaping the future of the world?
Updated: Dec 22, 2023
Energy Analytics: From Data Acquisition to Data-Driven Business Models - Scientific Figure on ResearchGate. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Eastern-Mediterranean-Gas-Forum-countries-EMGF-Source-Adam-Hegazy_fig2_346034361 [accessed 12 Dec, 2023]
While the European Union is projecting to reach its renewable energy target of 32% through solar, wind, biofuel, and hydropower in 2030, the Russian-Ukrainian War has accelerated the Eastern Mediterranean energy crisis. Meanwhile, European countries have started to find alternative ways in which they can reduce their dependency on Russian gas under the frame of the European Union. The outcome of the drilling carried out by IGI Poseidon, ExxonMobil, and Eni in the Eastern Mediterranean has shown that the region's future potential can have a tremendous effect on the economic and political cooperation among the states in the region. The press release by IGI Poseidon on 01.10.2022 listed what the drilling outcome would bring to the region as follows:
"Israeli gas fields will increase current productions by an additional 20 Bcm/year within three years. The available volumes, confirmed by local E&P players, will be sufficient for developing new export infrastructures in addition to, and not in competition with, the existing ones. The pipeline's construction would also facilitate the development of Cyprus' gas sources; Italy and Greece could also guarantee availability and transportation of these volumes to Central Europe and Balkans." (IGI Poseidon, 2022)
According to the US Geological Survey research, the Levant region in the Eastern Mediterranean has a potential of approximately 1.7 billion barrels of oil and 3.45 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. The Levant region covers an area of 83,000 square kilometers on the riparian coasts of Israel, Lebanon, and Syria.
In addition, natural gas deposits have already been discovered in the Eastern Mediterranean. The largest of these is the Egyptian Zohr gas field. The natural gas reserve is estimated to be 849 billion cubic meters.
On the other hand, Israel has the Tamar gas field within its exclusive economic zone. It is estimated that there is 280 billion cubic meters of natural gas in reserve located at a depth of 1,700 meters.
The Aphrodite field, the first natural gas reserve found by the tender given by the Cyprus administration, whose authority is recognized by the International Community to Noble Energy, which conducts the exploration works on behalf of Israel, is estimated to have a 129 billion cubic meters capacity.
In addition, the Cyprus administration, whose authority is recognized by the International Community, announced that they identified a natural gas reserve in the field called Glaucus-1, with a size between 142 and 227 billion cubic meters, according to the first surveys. (Arslan, 2019)
The international point of contention in the Eastern Mediterranean is the Eastern Mediterranean basin that covers Cyprus as well. The natural energy reserve in this basin is already known as the biggest energy reserve of the world. The Eastern Mediterranean trench, where the reserve is located, is at the junction of the transcontinental maritime jurisdictions. This requires the countries bordering the Eastern Mediterranean to be included in the equation. Any act otherwise would create “a cause of constant conflict” out of both obtaining energy and using the obtained energy.
With respect to the East-Med pipeline project, which was put into operation in 2013 under the European Commission's umbrella, it was later agreed with a trilateral agreement between the Cyprus administration, whose authority is recognized by the International Community, Israel, and Greece in 2020 that a 1900 km pipeline would be laid down. The three states also planned to adopt a common tax system. In this manner, it was predicted that the natural gas could be distributed directly to Italy and Europe, passing through Israel, Southern Cyprus, and Crete without crossing any transit country. The second option that Israel found feasible was to distribute the natural gas from Israel to Turkey and Europe, but Greece found that problematic. Finally, the last option was to distribute natural gas through Egypt to Italy and Europe. During this process, Turkey signed a treaty with Libya in 2019 on maritime jurisdictions, enabling Libya to take a crucial step toward strengthening its hand in the Eastern Mediterranean.
However, in its current form, bringing the East-Med project to life is facing some obstacles. The project has been in stasis since the start of the pandemic. A country like America with political and economic power had withdrawn support from the project, claiming the region was open to hot conflicts, which later caused big corporations to stop drilling activities in the region. Besides, the consensus on the project was already overturned with the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014 and Russia losing its leadership position in the distribution of natural gas in the region.
Moreover, the East-Med project could increase the tension between Turkey and Greece and disrupt the balance of power in the region. This is mainly due to the claims arising from the historical political dispute over Cyprus and the disagreements on maritime jurisdiction areas in the Aegean Sea that also impacted Turkey's claims on the Mediterranean Sea.
Additionally, on the side of Israel, Israel believes that the involvement of an Arab country like Egypt would ease its hand in the regional tensions between itself, Lebanon, and Iran, which stems from Iran's goal of becoming a nuclear power and its support to Lebanon. Keeping that in mind, the Cairo Summit held on December 7, 2022, with the participation of 8 countries (Italy, France, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Palestine, the Cyprus administration, whose authority is recognized by the International Community, and Greece), concluded that implementing the East-Med project could allow the direct distribution of energy to Europe without the need for Russian gas and without passing through non-European transit countries; they also foresee that it could be implemented within 4 years from the starting date of the investment. This development will surely change the geopolitical balances in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean at high speed, and it will enable Italy, Israel, and Greece to gain economic and political dominance and help them gain political weight. (Affairs, 2022)
Furthermore, careful consideration must be given to the stances and influence exerted by nations bordering the Eastern Mediterranean, including Cyprus, the guarantor countries in Cyprus, nations not officially designated as guarantors but capable of leveraging their relationships with Cyprus for benefits, as well as the involvement of the United States and Russia. Additionally, the potential activation of countries in the surrounding region by these two major powers should be taken into account.
The struggle between major powers and those aligning with them revolves around asserting dominance in the Eastern Mediterranean and controlling the energy-rich basin spanning the triangular region connecting the Eastern Black Sea to the Eastern Mediterranean. This area encompasses Southern Russia, East and West Turkestan, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The United States, Great Britain, Russia, and France have amassed their military forces in the Eastern Mediterranean or nearby naval zones.
Already, the United States, England, Russia, and France have deployed their war machines in the Eastern Mediterranean or in naval areas close to the Eastern Mediterranean.
Nonetheless, Israel argues that the East-Med Poseidon pipeline project is feasible based on the implementation of the Norway gas pipeline. However, Israel defends that maintaining global support is necessary for the project. There is no doubt that when we consider the precise geopolitical balance in the region, without global support, the East-Med project could ignite hot conflicts at any time, in addition to the humanitarian crises that have already started with the Russian-Ukrainian and Syrian Civil wars. Nevertheless, if we consider humanitarian crises like forced migration resulting from conflicts, it appears that these elements could disrupt the geopolitical power balance in the region and alter the political influence of the Eastern Mediterranean, potentially emerging as a substantial force in a world already experiencing transformation due to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
In conclusion, the Aegean and Adriatic Sea are not standalone bodies of water but extensions of the Mediterranean Sea reaching the European mainland. Europe must liberate itself from U.S. influence and potential Russian threats. It must first break free from energy dependence on other nations and establish a self-reliant military force independent of the USA to achieve this. If Europe succeeds in these initiatives, its relations with the USA and Russia may evolve from a "dependent relationship" to a relationship "between equals." Failing to achieve this could render Europe unable to safeguard its values, norms, and institutions, risking the erosion of its status as a "leading civilization."
Hence, Union countries might consider transferring their national authorities responsible for delineating maritime jurisdiction areas to the Union. This measure has the potential to empower Europe in securing its continental existence, preserving independence, and upholding core values.
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