The Geopolitical Underpinnings of the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict

Source: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/gaza-wars-impact-energy-security-east-mediterranean

Since the 2006 war, the strained Hezbollah-Israel relations and the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020 between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, which marked Israel's diplomatic recognition and expanded cooperation, have heightened tensions in Arab countries. These frictions intensified further following the October 7 attacks. In response to Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack, Israel invoked its right to national security and self-defense, launching operations in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Gaza, a region of strategic importance hosting thousands of Palestinians, was placed under blockade. While Israel attempts to displace Palestinians to the Sinai Desert and Jordan, Jordan is reportedly considering suspending the 1994 Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty.

The ongoing interventions and assaults by Israel's current far-right coalition continue with the aim of neutralizing Hamas and Hezbollah. However, Palestinians, lacking sovereign statehood, persist in their resistance through non-state actors. This dynamic pits an internationally recognized state against a population that has faced displacement, violence, and denial of political rights since 1948, leading to continued resistance against disproportionate force via non-state mechanisms. Such force exacerbates the humanitarian crisis in the region and amplifies resistance movements, drawing support from regional powers opposed to U.S. policies.

Israel believes it has weakened Hamas, which emerged as a counterbalance to the two-state solution. However, Israel has been engaged in nearly 40 years of conflict with Hezbollah, a group that originated after the 1979 Iranian Revolution and became integral to Lebanon’s social fabric following the political marginalization of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in 1982. Despite Israel's suppression campaigns, it faces the likelihood of intensified multi-front conflicts with other Iranian-backed non-state actors. Iran's coalition, referred to as the "Axis of Resistance," includes groups such as Iraq’s Islamic Resistance, the Popular Mobilization Forces, Lebanese Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and, to a lesser extent, “the former Syria’s authority”. On the other hand, Lebanon, home to nearly 1.2 million refugees and experiencing deepening economic and political crises since 2009, is being plunged into chaos. According to Al Jazeera, as of now, 45,361[1] Palestinians, including 17,492 children, have been killed, while Israel has suffered 1,139 casualties, and 251 Israeli citizens are held captive by Hamas, with 101 still detained. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's refusal to negotiate prolongs the captivity of Israeli hostages, intensifying domestic opposition within Israel.

Following the U.S. elections, the fall of the Syrian government shifted the Middle East's power dynamics, allowing Israel to solidify its control over the Golan Heights, captured during the 1967 Six-Day War. The Trump administration’s pro-Israel rhetoric indicates a reduced interventionist policy in the Middle East while maintaining support for Israel. Still, such diplomacy-driven maneuvers can heighten tensions among regional and interregional actors.

Furthermore, the ideological and geopolitical rivalry between Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 goals and Iran's regime will likely see significant influence from the U.S. and China in shaping its course. This necessitates close monitoring of developments and shifts in Iran’s domestic and foreign policies.

A new buffer zone will inevitably be established. However, this will likely bring structural changes to the region, especially given the intensified manoeuvring in the post-Iranian Revolution and post-U.S. invasion of Iraq contexts. Israel aims to achieve complete control over the Gaza Strip and establish dominance over maritime trade routes and marine jurisdiction areas as America’s closest ally in the Middle East. In contrast to China's Belt and Road Initiative, Israel seeks to implement the Ben Gurion Canal project and explore Gaza’s untapped natural gas resources to gain a strategic advantage in the competition for Eastern Mediterranean resources.

In its multi-actor conflict—initially targeting Hamas and escalating with the goal of neutralizing Hezbollah—Israel’s refusal to acknowledge Palestinians’ right to self-determination is likely to strengthen resistance movements. Concurrently, the dormant Arab populace may radicalize further. Ultimately, this process is expected to bring the concept of a Palestinian state or a potential confederation back to the forefront of discussions.

References:

AJLabs. (2023, October 09). AlJazeera Live. Retrieved from AlJazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker