The Impact of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict on the Eastern Mediterranean Security

As the Eastern Mediterranean has obtained a pivotal role precisely in the Ukraine-Russian war due to the discovery of natural gas reserves in the region as an alternative region for obtaining energy resources, the potential intensification of the conflict between Hamas and Israeli forces could have substantial effects on the stability of regional security in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The 1967 war was a turning point in Israeli-Palestinian relations. The victory of Israel paved the way for starting the program of systematic expansion of its territories. It also marked the commencement of significant military assistance from the US to Israel, contributing to Israel's ability to secure its naval borders through the coastal Levant. This assistance and territorial expansion also played a crucial role in the transformation of Arab nationalism into Arab radicalism. The conflict, which began with the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 and continued uninterruptedly at short intervals, led Israel to feel its political existence under siege, and Israel's perception of the threat became permanent. Israel had to lift this siege politically and militarily, or at least break the integrity of the siege, and to achieve this goal, it had no choice but to depend on a strategic partnership with the US, and this situation is still valid.

Not from a bird's eye view, but from a micro evaluation, the prevailing power dynamics in the region can be described as follows:

- With northern neighbors of Lebanon and Syria, Hezbollah and other non-state actors positioned in Lebanon and supported by Iran pose a risk, while in the north, the Syrian-Russian alliance poses a security threat.

In the realm of regional politics, the Golan Heights, acquired by Israel in the 1967 war, serves as a buffer zone between Israel and Syria. This strategic area is positioned to control the high ground along the Jordan River, thereby safeguarding the security of Israel's Eastern side.

The Northern Galilei region stands as a vital center for agricultural and manufacturing production, holding pivotal strategic significance for robust economies.

- Southern neighbor Egypt; owing to its significant population, geographical location, and being the first Arab state to sign a peace treaty with Israel, Egypt continues to be a crucial actor in any effort to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, the difficulty stems again from the difficulty of controlling the non-state actors.

In addition to these considerations, it's imperative to acknowledge Iran's significant role as the foremost regional player in the region's balance of power. Iran has been actively supporting Shiite groups in Syria and Lebanon militarily, influencing the dynamics in the region. When the Saudi Arabia and Iran normalization process became prominent as an advantage on all fronts in restoring diplomatic relations and providing security assistance, it aimed to reduce tensions across the Middle East. The rapprochement between the two countries was initiated through the mediation of China, which has been an important diplomatic and strategic player in the Gulf region also regarding the fact that China is part of the BRICS coalition, which serves as the potential for member states to become global superpowers in the future, meaning a shift in the international, geopolitical power balance. Iran's calculations in the Eastern Mediterranean are the same as its calculations in the Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of Aden. Moreover, Iran's calculations in these two seas have geopolitical implications that can go beyond these seas.

Keeping that in mind, another country that can play a crucial role in the region is Azerbaijan, which is one of the key suppliers of crude oil and a close military partner of Israel that shares a long border with Iran. If the Israeli-Palestinian conflict turns out to be a wider regional conflict in time, that would intensify the importance of the Eastern Mediterranean and endanger the stability of the region along with the changes in the Ukraine-Russia war.

Since the outbreak of the war, the geopolitics of the region has been trying to survive on a constant line of tension. Without any diplomatic intervention by the international community, the security of the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean will remain threatened.