While acknowledging its national independence as the day Bashar El-Khoury's imprisonment ended, Lebanon, which gained full independence in 1946, received its first mass migration with the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948. Due to the sectarian division of the state structure in Lebanon, inter-sectarian tensions within the country increased in the Middle East conjuncture, which started to come under the influence of the Cold War towards the end of the 1950s. As the 1952 Nasser revolution and the Nasserism ideology based on anti-imperialist Arab socialism and Pan-Arabism spread its influence across the region, Lebanon's fragile state structure was trying to maintain itself in a much more delicate balance. In 1952, the Socialist Front forced Bechara Khalil El Khory to resign, and Camille Chamoun (1952-1958) was appointed president. However, even under Chamoun, Lebanon was still struggling to survive under the threat of civil war due to the weight of the Palestinian population and the internal social dynamics under the influence of the wave of Arab nationalism that grew after Nasser took power in Egypt with the 1958 revolution. This threat was exacerbated by the disproportionate distribution of sectarian representation. The Lebanese crisis of 1958, which grew following the Suez crisis with Egypt (1956), was suppressed by the Blue Bat Operation directed by Eisenhower, and Chamoun was replaced by Fouad Chehab.
The presidency of Fouad Chehab (1958-1964) coincided with the period of the United Arab Republic of Egypt and Syria from 1958 until the Syrian coup d'état of 1961. Although social tensions were still high within the country, Chehab succeeded in restoring public order, thereby introducing reforms for the construction of modern state institutions, the establishment of the Central Bank of Lebanon, and the building of the Lebanese standing army. His reforms and institution-building, his successful restriction of foreign interference in domestic affairs, the stability he brought to the government and the nation, and his success in suppressing the 1961 coup attempt led to the birth of Chehabism in Lebanon. Although a constitutional amendment was proposed in the Chamber of Deputies to extend his presidential term to a second term, Chehab stepped down in 1964.
Under his successor, Charles Helou (1964-1970), the Palestinian guerrilla movement led by Arafat began to gain strength. After the Six-Day War in 1967, the regional balance in the Middle East changed dramatically. The war, which ended in an Israeli victory, was, in fact, marking the beginning of the civil war in Lebanon. The second largest influx of Palestinians after 1948 occurred after the 1967 war, and the demographic structure of the country changed drastically. Over time, the al-Fatah movement in Lebanon became the dominant force and joined the Palestine Liberation Organisation. In November 1969, after a series of clashes between the Palestinians and the Lebanese army, the Lebanese government was forced to sign the Cairo Agreement under internal and external pressure. The first effects of this Agreement were to free the PLO's hand militarily and to grant Palestinians many important social rights, including the right to work. The PLO assumed responsibility for managing the affairs of the Palestinian community in the country. Arafat was elected chairman of the PLO executive committee. After the Black September 1970 incident in Jordan, the Palestinian population in Lebanon grew even larger, making up almost 35% of the Lebanese population. The center of power of the PLO moved to Lebanon. However, this served to polarise further Lebanon, which was already increasingly caught in a political power struggle between sects, and the country became divided between those who supported the PLO presence and those who opposed it.
The conflict, which started in 1975 when the Phalangists prevented a vehicle carrying Palestinian refugees from passing in front of the Maronite Church, soon turned into a civil war. The Lebanese National Resistance Front was composed of Pan-Arab groups on the side of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, the Lebanese Communist Party, the Amal Movement, and various groups affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and was opposed by the Phalangists led by Bachir Gemayel, the Lebanese Front led by Camille Chamoun and Christian militia groups. After the massacre of Palestinians in the Tel al-Zaatar camp by the Phalangists in 1976, Israel invaded southern Lebanon in 1978 and became involved in the war. When Christian militias killed about 1,000 Palestinians in the Israeli-controlled Sabra and Shatila refugee camps (1982), a multinational US, French, and Italian peacekeeping force returned to the country, sparking the first intifada (1987-1993).
In this process, Khomeini's revolution in Iran by overthrowing the Shah's regime in 1979 dramatically shook the geopolitical balances of the region and marked the beginning of a new era. After the revolution, the Shiite movement gained strength in Lebanon. The change paved the way for a group from the Amal movement in Lebanon to break away and form the Hezbollah organization in 1982, which entered the war on the side of the PLO. However, the war escalated in 1982 when Israel invaded Lebanon and reached the southern suburbs of Beirut and continued until 1990. In 1990, the Taif Agreement, signed with the mediation of the Arab League, ended the 15-year civil war. A National Reconciliation Document was drafted, transferring executive power from the president to the cabinet, and the Christian-Muslim seat ratio in parliament, previously 6:5, was readjusted to ensure an equal balance among members. Syria, which had fought on the Lebanese Front throughout the war, obtained the right to maintain a military presence in Lebanon with the Taif Agreement - which Syria did not withdraw until 2005 - while Saudi Arabia secured the appointment of Rafik Hariri as prime minister, which changed the fate of Lebanon.
Rafiq Hariri played an important role in the signing of the Taif Agreement as a successful mediator in bringing Saudi Arabia to the table and reaching an agreement and subsequently took office as the first prime minister of post-civil war Lebanon. With the agreement, the tutelage of the new regime was transferred to Syria, and it was agreed that Syria could maintain its army on Lebanese territory. The war left behind a devastating impact, with at least 150,000 people killed, 100,000 seriously injured, and at least 900,000 displaced. The country's infrastructure has almost completely collapsed, and sectarian political and social polarisation has continued to deepen. This situation paved the way for the Hezbollah movement to gain momentum, so much so that by 1992, Hezbollah had seats in parliament. Except for Hezbollah, all political groups in Lebanon were disarmed.
In Lebanon, a country with a post-war economy, Hariri's economic policies have reduced inflation, implemented the Horizon 2000 plan, and emphasized infrastructure development plans. The economic development policy pursued was designed to promote the growth of the private sector by encouraging foreign investment, but this preference for the liberal economic model led to an increase in competition between the elites in the sectarian political system, as well as regional differences and social inequalities in the country. Very few people perhaps realized that the economic development model of this period would set the stage for the economic crisis of 2019.
The 2005 assassination of Hariri fuelled the anti-Syrian movement in Lebanon and increased pressure for the withdrawal of the Syrian army. The Cedar Revolution became the epitome of civil resistance; its slogans of freedom, sovereignty, and independence basically included the withdrawal of Syrian troops stationed in the country since 1976, the establishment of an independent government, the establishment of an international commission to investigate the Hariri assassination and the organization of free parliamentary elections. The anti-Syrian Said Hariri alliance won a parliamentary majority in the elections, and Prime Minister Omar Karami resigned. Syria withdrew from the country in April 2005 following a UN Security Council resolution.
On the other hand, Hezbollah tried to centralize its power by organizing numerous pro-Syrian rallies during the Cedar Revolution. In 2006, it launched its heaviest attack on Israel, bombing Israeli military positions and kidnapping two Israeli soldiers. While Israel was trying to rescue the kidnapped soldiers, 5 more Israeli soldiers were killed. Israel immediately recognized Hezbollah's attacks as an act of war and responded with an all-out attack on Lebanon. Lebanon, which had barely strengthened its infrastructure after the civil war, was again devastated. 1 million people were displaced, nearly 2,000 people were killed, and the cost was $2.8 bn.
There were clear reasons for Hezbollah's strategic decision and Israel's retaliatory response from its own front. Hezbollah was trying to fill the power vacuum created by Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon and to establish its centralization and legitimacy. With Syria, which was further squeezed by the power vacuum created in Iraq after September 11, and Iran, which was becoming more prominent in the eyes of the US within the regional conjuncture, Israel tried to make its weight felt in the region by taking a counter maneuver that would weaken Hezbollah. At the end of this war, Israel was unable to inflict a clear defeat on Hezbollah. However, the deployment of the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) as a result of the 2006 war limited the possibility of Israeli intervention. However, over time, Hezbollah would become the most pivotal proxy actor in the US-Iran crisis, primarily in the region but also in Lebanon...
Starting in 2010, the Arab Spring was predicted to drag Syria into a civil war, but it was not foreseen that the process would end with the victory of the Assad regime. The port of Tartus in Syria has a very crucial position in Russia's Eastern Mediterranean security concept. In an environment where the Arab Spring rapidly turned into a civil war in the country, the Syrian regime received the support of Russia and Iran as well as BRICS countries China and India. Syria has a key strategic position in terms of the security of the Middle East, and the course of the civil war was important enough to affect various power balances in the region. The impact of the Syrian Civil War on Lebanon began with Hezbollah's active involvement in the war. Hezbollah perceived the outbreak of the civil war as a threat to its own security, as it was supplying arms and ammunition through Syria. However, Hezbollah became involved in the war after sectarian conflicts were exacerbated by the assassination of Rafik Hariri, with the aim of weakening the consequences of the 2006 war. However, this intervention jeopardized Lebanon's national security; the influx of Palestinian and Syrian refugees into Lebanon as a result of the Syrian Civil War deepened the existing socio-economic and political crisis. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has prevented the country from both strengthening its infrastructure and achieving political stability.
When Lebanon was promised a loan of $11 billion at the CEDRE conference (2018), Lebanon, in return, committed to public-private partnerships, public debt reduction, and austerity measures. These commitments included reducing GDP by 5% over 5 years. However, Lebanon, with a public debt of $55bn, defaulted on its debt repayment in 2019, the attempt to form a new government failed, and the economy took a turn for the worse. On top of that, the explosion at the Beirut Port in 2020 further accelerated the collapse of the Lebanese economy. Its gross domestic product continued to shrink, with GDP falling to $20.5 billion in 2020. The main causes of this crisis can be listed as the neo-liberal economic model introduced in the aftermath of the civil war, focusing on urban restructuring and aiming to attract financial flows from abroad, the internalization of a political-social and economic order in which sectarian political elites benefit maximally through privatization, and the political instability further reinforcing social inequality and unjust income distribution in the country. The economic recession in Lebanon accelerated as agricultural production declined, health services almost came to a standstill, state resources were used by political elites, and the tourism and real estate sectors came to a standstill following the Syrian war.
Today, Lebanon's foreign exchange reserves are depleted, the Lebanese lira has lost 95% of its value against the dollar, and inflation has reached 200%. The middle class has disappeared, the country has lost a large proportion of its skilled labor force due to brain drain, and Lebanon is currently experiencing one of the most severe economic collapses of the modern era with a population of 1.5 million.
Amid such a deep economic collapse, Lebanon has been on edge since the beginning of the Hamas-Israeli conflict. Lebanese Interior Minister Raya Haffar El Hassan, the first female interior minister in the Arab world, describes Lebanon's critical position and potential dangers in the ongoing conflict as follows;
"As the conflict continues, more than 990,000 people have been internally displaced, and more than 90 villages have been affected. Around 50 percent of dwellings are uninhabitable due to extensive infrastructure damage, including significant damage to agricultural land. Furthermore, around 21 % of all cultivated land is located in the south, leading to significant impacts on exports and significant damage to large areas of olive tree groves. The lasting impact on the infrastructure of the southern region will continue, compounded by the financial and economic difficulties stemming from the 2009 crisis and exacerbated especially after the 2011 revolution and Lebanon's commitments to Eurobond obligations. As of 7 October, GDP estimates fell sharply, signaling that a return to the recession was imminent. The suspension of flights and closure of car hire services, hotels, and restaurants exacerbate the economic downturn. As of 7 October, GDP estimates showed a sharp decline, signaling that the economy is nearing a return to recession. Flights were suspended, car rentals were canceled, and hotels and restaurants closed.
With 200,000 Palestinians in the camps, the level of deprivation of refugees is expected to increase tenfold, and the risk of violence is expected to increase as individuals resort to arming themselves or joining Hamas. In addition, the refugee crisis has further burdened the Lebanese economy and jeopardized the social fabric. Lebanon is currently without a president, resulting in a significant political vacuum. Without a fully functioning government, Lebanon cannot manage its precarious situation, compounded by the problems in Gaza. It is imperative to encourage local stakeholders to unite and elect a new president. Currently, the only functioning institution in Lebanon is the army. Four years after the economic crisis, the government's attempts to implement an economic recovery plan have failed. The plan proposed by the IMF is conditional on the fulfillment of certain preconditions. The government needs to reach consensus with stakeholders on a strategy for economic recovery, otherwise the prospects for recovery are slim." [1]
While Israel is moving forward with the goal of eliminating Hamas' sources of military power, it also continues to engage in border clashes with Hezbollah. After striking Hezbollah bases in southern Lebanon and, most recently, the Iranian consulate in Syria, the war has turned into a multi-dimensional security war rather than a military conflict. The planned ground operation in the Rafah area raises the question of what might happen to Palestinian civilians there, given that Egypt has closed its border crossings and Jordan will not admit any more Palestinians. Demonstrations against Prime Minister Netanyahu's government have been growing since the Hamas hostage crisis, and calls for elections have been echoed by anti-government political groups. "Netanyahu has shifted Israeli society away from its semi-socialist roots towards a more capitalist, American-orientated model. He leads a predominantly far-right coalition and has seen Hamas as a counterweight to the concept of a two-state solution. In the absence of a constitution, the Supreme Court wields considerable power and uses police force to prevent protests from turning into mass demonstrations. The US, which has been a staunch supporter of Israel from the beginning, supplying it with munitions and weapons systems, has the ability to stop Israeli actions through its veto power. The possibility of a Palestinian state is being discussed again, and a new government in Israel could signal a return to liberal values." [2]
On the other hand, it should not be forgotten that the continuity of the support provided by the US and the European Union to Ukraine in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the fact that the gas supplied to Europe will no longer be supplied through Russia, the Hamas-Israel conflict in the region should be handled in a separate dimension without excluding the Palestinian problem dimension that has been going on for years, and the new economic corridor developing with the BRICS coalition forces the US and Europe to develop urgent solution projects. In this sense, Israel, which is America's closest ally apart from the oil countries, will try to seize the opportunity to gain superiority in the EastMed project to be provided through the Leviathan natural gas field, which contains 605 billion cubic meters of natural gas reservoir, within its borders and shifting to the Lebanese sea area. When the Hamas-Israel conflict is examined from this perspective, it is clear that this project, in which Gaza also has undiscovered natural gas reserves, is in the process of developing a new economic corridor for non-BRICS members (America, Britain, European coalition) through the sovereignty and control of maritime areas. Considering that Iran has the largest gas reserves after Russia, the American withdrawal from the 2015-2016 agreement and the imposition of sanctions on Iran, on the one hand, and the regular bombing of the Syrian port of Latakia by Israel during the development of the Syrian-Chinese economic strategic partnership, on the other hand, are steps taken to compete with the new economic corridor being developed by the BRICS members.
Sources:
[1] WoodrowWilsonCenter. (2024, February 23). A Conversation on the Impact of the War in Gaza on Lebanon’s Economy with Raya El Hassan [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Euca_jnYjqA
[2] Foreign Affairs. (2024, February 29). Aluf Benn: Netanyahu’s Israel | Foreign Affairs Interview [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPDbHlpeE94
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